Bellwether Poll Shows Trump Up Big on Kamala Harris

On Monday, former President Donald Trump received more favorable news about his third presidential run.

According to the New York Post, a “cookie” poll performed by a Cincinnati bakery, which has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984, showed Trump with a significant advantage against Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the most recent Busken Bakery total published with The Post, Trump received around 54% of the vote (2,953 cookies), while Harris received 39% (2,134 cookies). An “independent” smiley-face cookie scored 7% (397 biscuits).

“The cookie poll will remain open until Election Day on Nov. 5, so the tallies reflect the result of ‘early voting’ by those with a sweet tooth,” The Washington Post wrote.

“We like to joke and say [customers] can stuff the ballot box,” bakery president and CEO Dan Busken told the publication.

“Our results, from our four retail outlets, cover the north, south, east, and west sides of Cincinnati. “So they are quite diverse,” Busken told The Post. “It is definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and in a city like Cincinnati that there is been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years.”

Meanwhile, several Democratic senators have expressed worry that former President Donald Trump’s popularity is underrepresented in polling data, as it has been in the last two presidential election cycles.

After Trump surpassed polling expectations in both 2016 and 2020, Democrats told The Hill that the 2024 race will be tight, regardless of current polling results. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump was 2.2 points behind Vice President Kamala Harris nationally as of Monday afternoon. This is a smaller margin than Biden’s advantage over Trump at this point in 2020 (7 points) or Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump in 2016.

“That is ominous,” said one anonymous Democratic senator as he discussed Trump’s apparent poll lead over Harris. “There is no question it is concerning, but you are working as hard as you can, anyway. I do not think there is much more you can do beyond what we are doing currently.”

The senator went on to say that he believes undercounting Trump support is due to people being “embarrassed.”

“Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,” according to the senator. “So there is a certain amount of reluctance to admit I am going to vote for somebody whose conduct I tell my children is wrong.”

Most Democrats have been casting Trump as a “threat to democracy” after naming him a “Nazi,” a “fascist,” a “racist,” and a “bigot” — among other titles — for years. He and his followers blame Democratic rhetoric for the two murder attempts on him.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), meantime, has warned against putting too much faith in polls, claiming that “polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016.” And one of the truths is that Trump will be tough in Pennsylvania, which is totally true.”

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) declared that in his competitive state, “the only poll that matters is Nov. 5.”

“We know the election will be close. It is going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, therefore I am doing everything I can to ensure Georgia is in our column,” he stated. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?” He elaborated: “We talk about margin of error for a reason.”

Another Democratic senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Hill, “I do not think any poll right now means much of anything.”

“The most difficult task is calculating the turnout. This time, there might be a surprise Trump vote and a surprise Harris vote,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told The Hill. “I, too, am concerned that there will be some surprises. What raises my concern is that when you poll folks who did not vote in 2020 but plan to vote today, they are disproportionately Trump supporters.”